Introduction
All major energy transition pathways identify green hydrogen as the most credible solution available today for decarbonizing heavy industry and transport sectors.
Few highlight the significant technical and market potential of green hydrogen and derivatives’ production across the African continent, which enable an historic economic and climate leadership opportunity.
Delivering on that potential will require unprecedented international collaboration to address major barriers.
The Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance was soft launched at COP26, connecting existing initiatives and leadership efforts, with the potential to generate new industry awareness, opportunities and action.
Context
Global confidence has grown rapidly on the role of green hydrogen in securing a clean energy revolution that achieves both the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the objective of the Paris Agreement.
The United Nations’ Marrakech Partnership’s Energy Pathway foresees 500-800 gigawatts (GW) of green hydrogen electrolysis deployment by 2030, consistent with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recent Net Zero 2050 scenario. Production at this scale can decarbonize key sectors like steel, shipping, power, and chemicals (i.e. fertilizers) that are challenging to electrify with renewables directly. Critically, many experts have long expected green hydrogen costs to decline rapidly, potentially becoming cost-competitive with emissions-abated fossil fuels this decade. The most rapid path to this outcome will leverage the most advantageous locations worldwide, where exceptional renewables create new value pools for global carbon abatement.
Today, industry assessments of scalability and cost reduction increasingly support this bold trajectory. The Green Hydrogen Catapult was launched in 2020 by seven leading energy and industry companies with a target to deliver 25 GW globally and costs below USD 2/kg by 2026—a possible tipping point for global industrial development. The Hydrogen Council estimates that a US$200 billion investable pipeline of green hydrogen projects are currently under development. BNEF currently estimates that annual demand for ~8GW of green hydrogen electrolysis capacity and its supply will arise by 2025.
This private sector momentum is underpinned by emerging policy leadership in Europe, China, India, and North America. Funding support ranging between USD 10-20 billion per year, alongside carbon pricing and regulation, will spur more rapid deep decarbonization than commonly anticipated as costs continue to decline and demand expands further.
The opportunity for Africa
Green hydrogen unlocks the world’s first zero carbon industrial opportunity by enabling renewable energy sources to be converted into transportable and useful chemicals and value-added products. Many countries across Africa are well-suited to access this with large tranches of non-arable land and strong renewable energy potential. New opportunities for near-zero carbon industry and employment are within reach—if not yet in hand.
Export markets offer breakthrough opportunities for developing this new sector, today. Effective public and private sector collaboration will be necessary to rapidly mobilize investment and project development to produce green hydrogen in quantities needed to meet 2030 decarbonization targets. Meanwhile, mass-scale production can open up renewable energy and green hydrogen supply chains at significant scale to further broader economic growth and electrification. For example, installation of four global scale green hydrogen projects would more than double the renewable energy capacity installed across Africa as of 2020.
At the same time, could this export-oriented development unlock structural changes in local, carbon-intensive heavy industries to address challenging environmental and health effects?
Deliberate efforts to adopt green hydrogen in hard-to-electrify end-uses would benefit from large-scale supply chains and expertise established for export markets. Additional and significant financial support for broader adoption would be necessary, and may be reasonable: On the narrow economics, green hydrogen may approach cost competitiveness with natural gas by the early 2030s in India and Brazil, according to BNEF, as well as many countries in Africa. This is a natural extension of renewable energy cost declines, which have made it the most cost-competitive source of electricity in many emerging economies, where it saved USD 32 billion across 534 GW in 2020, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.
However, accessing these opportunities from today even as the green hydrogen supply chain matures will require significant financial support from developed countries or targeted domestic fiscal policies. Examples of this include Germany’s support for sector development on the continent, and India’s forthcoming mandate for green hydrogen adoption in refining and fertilizer production.
Delivering Africa’s Green Hydrogen Potential
Grasping the opportunities posed by a new African green hydrogen industry will require a concerted effort from a diverse set of stakeholders. These include government ministries, project developers and financiers, international organisations and financial institutions, think tanks and technical experts and academic institutions.
Visionary private sector partners and other international collaborators can offer expertise, capacity and access to capital. At the same time, they can work with host governments and local and regional institutions to strengthen permitting processes and project structures that deliver on national and regional priorities for sustainable development and economic growth. Transparency and shared efforts to deliver each stakeholders’ needs will be essential to build broader trust and capabilities required for rapid, large-scale industry development.
Members
A broad base of mission-aligned public and private sector partners interested in pre-competitive collaboration can send a strong signal to policymakers in developed countries of broad intention to work towards equitable, lasting industrial development outcomes with adoption of green hydrogen.
Please find below a list of members of the Alliance:
Egypt, Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy (MOERE)
Kenya, Ministry of Energy
Mauritania, Ministry of Petroleum, Energy & Mines
Morocco, IRESEN
Namibia, Green Hydrogen Commission
South Africa, Industrial Development Corporation
Case Studies
AGHA members in the Green Hydrogen Country Portal
Egypt aims to be one of the largest exporters of clean hydrogen in the region, this has become a major goal in light of global changes related to the energy sector, as well as global economic and environmental changes in relation to climate change and the green economy. The Egyptian Government is achieving large-scale, low-cost Renewable Energy development and designing models for sustainably maximizing fiscal revenue and development in Renewable Energy investments in green hydrogen and ammonia production. Egypt’s world-class solar and wind resources give it a long-term competitive advantage in producing green hydrogen and green ammonia.
Kenya produces more than 90% of its electricity from hydropower, geothermal energy, solar and wind energy as well as biomass. In this context as a leading African country in renewable energy with an abundance of the elements required to develop green hydrogen, it is well placed to acquire green hydrogen as an alternative energy source. This could enable Kenya to replace fossil fuels completely and thus create a new economic sector which keeps larger portions of the value creation chain in the country, leading to the generation of domestic jobs and economic growth.
Mauritania has excellent renewable energy prospects making it a potential leading green hydrogen producer in Africa. Significant green hydrogen project developments and Mauritania’s proximity to the European market has the potential to increase export benefits, in addition to providing power to the national grid and various industrial activities, such as green steel production.
The Kingdom of Morocco aims to create an economic and industrial sector around green molecules, particularly hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, to consolidate its energy transition by contributing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting decarbonisation in partner countries.
Read more here
Namibia is aiming to become a green hydrogen superpower in the coming decade by positioning itself as a leader in the emerging markets and an international exporter of green hydrogen. Green hydrogen will be an important source of foreign investment and be important for the country’s energy security and transition. The government plans to use it extensively to decarbonize its own economy.
South Africa identifies green hydrogen as an essential component of its energy transition plan and towards the global commitment to decarbonize its economy (Hydrogen Society Roadmap, 2021).
South Africa has the competitive advantage to produce and export green hydrogen energy and aims to work on the existing opportunities to directly replace the hydrogen produced from natural gas by green hydrogen. The implementation of the hydrogen roadmap is in lines to tackle electricity supply issues and support inclusive growth and assist government to reduce unemployment, poverty, and inequality.
Events
The Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance (AGHA) from 26-27 September is holding its inaugural forum bringing together representatives from African governments, the private sector, civil society and development partners.
The forum is a platform for sharing good practice and effective policies that will support the growth of sustainable green hydrogen markets and agree clear targets for green hydrogen ahead of COP27. The forum is co-sponsored by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and its internal entities (the Africa Legal Support Facility and the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa) and the Green Hydrogen Organisation (GH2) with support from the UN High-Level Climate Champions and GIZ.
For more details, please click here.