The 2030 Breakthrough

10GT CO2e must be mitigated per year through nature-based solutions, achieving net zero by 2030

Why nature-based solutions? Tracking progress

Acknowledging the organizations working towards this future

LAND USE

By 2030: secure indigenous and local community rights, protect 45Mha, restore 350Mha of degraded land and sustainably manage forests and other terrestrial biomes.

SUPPLY

How industry and infrastructure can help


  1. By 2025: 100% of companies exposed to forest-risk commodity production adopt and implement policies that halt deforestation and disclose progress against targets. "By 2030": 100% of companies adopt landscape approaches as they halt degradation/conversion of all biomes.
Finance

The role of public and private financing


  1. By 2025: Financial institutions eliminate commodity-driven deforestation from portfolios contributing to halting land conversion, with corresponding interim risk assessment and disclosure, while tapping the USD 339 billion/year opportunity in NBS investment needed by 2030.
  2. By 2025: Governments reform harmful subsidies and increase investments in NBS for climate change mitigation and adaptation to contribute to the USD 339 billion per year needed by 2030.
  3. By 2030: Scale up financial mechanisms such as result based payments and voluntary carbon market approaches for nature based solutions, with the highest quality and integrity standards.
Policy

How governments can accelerate the transition


  1. By 2025 strengthened institutions and governance through capacity-building and technology transfer to more effectively implement Paris aligned climate policies towards a nature positive future.
  2. IMO agrees mid-term measures package by 2025
  3. By 2025: enact coherent policy systems (including natural capital accounting, accreditation systems and incentives), secure IPLC rights and mandate climate and nature related risks, impacts and disclosure.
  4. By 2030: conserve 30% of earth’s lands and inland waters
  5. Restore 350 MHa of degraded and deforested landscapes
  6. By 2030, local governments collaborate with partners to triple investments in nature-based solutions to increase their proportion of tree canopy and green space benefiting the most vulnerable, providing climate resilience, mitigate heat, improve hazard protection for communities and infrastructure, strengthen ecosystems and reduce emissions.
Civil Society / Demand

How the market can influence change


  1. By 2023: in line with the Global Stocktake, civil society coalitions using the most scientific and technological advances will propose localized actions required to deliver the 2030 Land-use breakthrough. Helping to accelerate critical systemic and practical land-use transformation, including influencing a shift in consumption patterns.
  2. By 2025: A healthy network of civil society coalitions catalyse the protection, restoration and regeneration of terrestrial ecosystems towards a nature positive future while providing the monitoring, accountability & delivery of commitments.
FOOD

By 2030: demand-side food system action, including a culturally appropriate 40% global shift to the ‘Planetary Health Diet’ (Exponential Roadmap & EAT-Lancet) and halving per capita food waste.

Supply


  1. By 2030: 1.5x increase the global consumption of fruits, vegetables, seeds, nuts and legumes.
  2. By 2025: limit meat-based protein consumption in high-consuming countries to *500g/ week *500g = 100g of red meat (pork, beef or lamb), 200g of poultry and 200g of fish (EAT) Baseline: 827g/ week (2017) (OWID)
  3. By 2030: halve food loss and waste at all stages of the food supply chain (relative to 2019)
Demand


  1. >80% of the population consumes all five food groups recommended in global dietary guidelines on a daily basis.
  2. By 2030: healthy alternative proteins* capture 15% of the global meat and seafood market. (Baseline: 2% (2020); *Especially from whole foods. Examples include: legumes, pulses, soy, beans and peas
  3. By 2030: local and/ or indigenous food supplied when available, with a +5% global localisation factor.
Cross-Cutting


  1. By 2025: bring food (particularly dietary shifts) into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Policy


  1. By 2025: apply true cost accounting to food policy, especially to meat in high-consuming countries, and use findings to drive tax/ VAT policies, which also subsidise the shift to sustainable healthy diets e.g. fruit and vegetable subsidies.
  2. Update and/ or develop science-based dietary guidelines for the general public to shape healthy food choices.
  3. Create enabling food environments and activate healthy sustainable public food procurement.
Finance


  1. Invest U.S. $35 billion per year into sustainable healthy diets (Clim-Eat) and redirect public investment from harmful food practices.
  2. Increase R&D investment and commercialisation of healthy alternative proteins: Private finance: cumulative (private) capital expenditure of $27B by 2030 for the plant-based meat industry. Public finance: Global (public) spending on R&D and commercialisation in healthy alternative proteins to increase to U.S. $4.4B and $5.7B per year.
Civil Society


  1. By 2025: mobilise effective campaigns that influence social norms on shifting to sustainable healthy diets.
AGRICULTURE

By 2030: climate-resilient, sustainable agriculture is the most attractive and widely adopted option for farmers everywhere and 2BHa of land is sustainably managed.

Supply


  1. By 2030: crop yields increase 17% to 7.7 tonnes per hectare Baseline: 6.6 tonnes per hectare
  2. By 2030: global farm level GHG emissions from agriculture production decrease 21% to 5.7GT CO2e Baseline: 7.2Gt CO2e
  3. By 2030, halt land cover change with respect to current levels Baseline: current cropland 1,200Mha; current pasture 3,200Mha
Demand


  1. See ‘Food Breakthrough’: By 2030: demand-side food system action, including a culturally appropriate 40% global shift to the ‘Planetary Health Diet’ (EAT-Lancet) and halving per capita food waste.
Policy


  1. By 2025: Governments begin a strategic dialogue on how to ensure international trade facilitates, and does not obstruct, the transition to sustainable agriculture.
  2. By 2025: countries and international organisations develop internationally agreed standards for monitoring and reporting on the state of natural resources on which agriculture depends, including soil carbon content and health, and pollinator health, as well as on the geographical extent of agriculture.
Finance


  1. By 2030: leverage private finance to the sector by 10x with a special focus on smallholders and SMEs.
  2. By 2025: make carbon markets work for food systems and nature based solutions.
  3. By 2030: repurpose US$600 billion per year in agricultural subsidies to align with climate-oriented support, with the guiding principles of increasing the efficient use of land and other natural resources while building resilience and reducing emissions.
Civil Society


  1. Promote regenerative agriculture and sustainable sourcing, through agricultural community development and increased transparency.
WHAT'S NEEDED BY COP 27


    POLICY 

    1. Enhance nature-based solutions in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and other climate policy instruments (i.e. National Adaptation Plans and Long Term Emission Development Strategies).
    2. Enhance food systems in NDCs, especially bringing in dietary shifts (currently only Ethiopia).
    3. Raise the profile of whole food systems in national accounting and climate plans by COP28.
    4. Adopt the Agriculture Breakthrough priority actions for 2023: RD&D, more climate finance, policy coordination with FAST initiative and AIM4C, metrics, and institutional home for Agriculture Breakthrough.
    5. At least 10 countries sign on to the Climate Agreement on Food & Farming.

    NON-STATE ACTION

    1. Strengthen action agendas across Rio Conventions, promoting non-state actor action and their support of Parties to deliver action and increased ambition.
    2. Demonstrate how Governments/ NSAs are meeting commitments under the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use.
    3. Support the Earthshot action agenda for agricultural innovation.
    4. Increase adoption across businesses of the new SBTI FLAG guidance (and ideally also adopt additional measures for biodiversity and AMR).
    5. Support and fund global pledges in the sector, like global methane pledge, or the FLW pledge launched by Rabobank, or 10x20x30 initiated by Champions 12.3.
    6. Promote a robust Global Biodiversity Framework, and its delivery including extended mandate to Sharm El Sheikh-Kunming nature action agenda.

    FINANCE

    1. Financial institutions commit to tackling commodity driven deforestation and increase investments in NBS by joining the Commitment on Eliminating Agricultural Commodity-Driven Deforestation.
    2. Increase investments in nature-based solutions, including in cities, states, regions.
    3. Ensure rules for high-integrity carbon markets deliver new and scaled up finance for nature.
    4. Strengthen platforms for nature-based solutions, including the NBS Partnership, the Forest Climate Leadership Partnership and the Leaders Pledge for Nature.
    5. Immediately increase public & private agriculture investment (especially RD&D) in: yield optimization; new and diversified crop and livestock varieties; reduction of food loss and waste; carbon mitigation and sequestration (especially, monitoring, reporting and verification of carbon removal); agroecology; alternative protein and dietary changes.
    6. Fund and implement more innovation sprints in AIM4C.
    7. Dedicated focus to bring more climate and carbon finance to smallholder farmers in vulnerable regions through High Yielding Adaptive and Resilient Practices, and adapted, de-risked blended finance.
    8. UNFCCC and FAO heed the call by investors representing $17.5 trillion in combined assets to produce a Global Roadmap to 1.5˚C, Nature and Nutrition Security Goals (example).

    CIVIL SOCIETY 

    1. Civil society, with support of public and philanthropic funding, supports scaling up of the pipeline of nature-based solutions.

     

What progress is the sector making in the Race to Zero

0%
100%

To drive systems transformation, the market share of companies in the Race must reach a tipping point of 20% to further catalyse change within the sector.

FURTHER READING

Discover more about our NBS actions and initiatives, and other ways these sectors are racing to net zero

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