Copenhagen, 25 September – The global shipping industry is not on track to meet its target of having zero-emission fuels account for 5% of all fuels by 2030. That’s according to a new report from the UCL Energy Institute, UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, and the Getting to Zero Coalition (a Global Maritime Forum initiative), which they hope will act as a “serious wake-up call” to the industry.
The third annual progress report, ‘Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough’, warns that the majority of actors across the maritime ecosystem – which spans the five ‘system change levers’ of supply, demand, policy, finance, and civil society – are moving too slowly to meet the internationally-agreed target, with the next 12 months being critical to avoid shipping falling irreparably behind its climate goals.
Global shipping is responsible for around 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – more than Germany – so it is a crucial sector to decarbonise. With global trade predicted to quadruple by 2050, emissions will skyrocket without urgent action.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a goal of ensuring that zero- or near-zero emission fuels make up 5% to 10% of all shipping fuels by 2030. The 5% target is considered the critical mass at which the infrastructure, supply chains, and technology that support zero-emission fuels mature and enable exponential growth. This means if the 5% target is not achieved, it could jeopardise the industry’s entire 2050 net-zero goal.
According to the report, production of scalable zero-emissions fuel (SZEF) currently in the pipeline could, under the more conservative scenario, end up covering less than half of the fuel needed to hit the 2030 target, while the current order book of SZEF-capable vessels would only deliver around 25% of required SZEF demand by the same year. Finance for SZEF is also now ‘off track’ – a downgrade from 2023 – due to a slowdown in funding towards SZEF-related activities and more funding going towards fossil-fuelled vessels.
“The speed at which the shipping industry adopts hydrogen-derived fuels will shape the success and the cost of this transition for decades to come,” said Dr. Domagoi Baresic, Research Fellow at the UCL Energy Institute. “Extensive adoption of such fuels by 2030 remains within reach but will require significant and immediate action by policymakers, fuel suppliers, and the shipping industry over the next 12 months. Without such action, the transition will be much longer, costlier and have a less positive environmental impact. All the ingredients for a rapid adoption already exist, but it is up to the relevant actors to make it a reality.”
Of the 35 actions required to deliver the 2030 breakthrough, just eight are considered ‘on track’, while 13 have been classed as ‘off track’ – up from eight in last year’s edition of the report. The remaining 14 are only ‘partially on track’. However, the report also stresses that meeting the goal is still achievable if action is stepped up. It points to strong progress on actions within in the ‘policy’ and ‘supply’ system change levers as examples of success, with hopes that strong GHG pricing and the fast delivery of announced production projects respectively could put both ‘on track’.
Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum, said: “Increasing the use of zero-emission fuels is at the heart of decarbonising the shipping industry, but we are not seeing the progress required to meet our decarbonisation goals.
“There is no time to waste, and we must see a big shift in momentum over the next 12 months to bring our 2030 targets within reach. With such long lead times to implement policy, and finance and build vessels and energy supply chains, the window of opportunity is only open by a crack – but importantly, it is still open. This report must act as a serious wake-up call to the industry to accelerate the transformation we need to see in the sector.”
The report identifies five key ‘system change levers’ for the industry and tracks their progress towards enabling the 5% goal. These include:
H.E. Razan Al Mubarak, UN Climate Change High-Level Champion, said: “Limiting climate change to 1.5°C will not be possible without shipping playing its part. To align with a 1.5oC transition, the sector must intensify its efforts in a short timeframe.
“We hope that the findings in this report provide a practical, detailed roadmap for action to accelerate this transition and ensure it is just, benefiting workers and communities globally”.
ENDS
Media contact: Molly P. Hannon, Senior Communications Manager
M: +45 5376 6787
E: mph@globalmaritimeforum.org
Definitions:
Scalable zero-emissions fuel (SZEF)
The report sets several key conditions for SZEF. These include the need for the fuels to be:
The definition therefore excludes biofuels, less-polluting fossil fuels (including liquified natural gas (LNG)), blue fuels (i.e. those derived from fossil fuel sources, such as hydrogen produced from natural gas), or applications of carbon capture. Options that are not at a high technology readiness level and have significant barriers to adoption are also excluded.
About the Global Maritime Forum
The Global Maritime Forum is an international not-for- profit organisation committed to shaping the future of global seaborne trade. It works by bringing together visionary leaders and experts who, through collaboration and collective action, strive to increase sustainable long- term economic development and human well-being.
Established in 2017, the Global Maritime Forum is funded through a combination of grants and partner contributions. It operates independently of any outside influence and does not support individual technologies or companies. Most of its roughly 45-person staff is based in the organisation’s headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Learn more about the Global Maritime Forum at www.globalmaritimeforum.org
About the Getting to Zero Coalition
The Getting to Zero Coalition is a powerful alliance of more than 200 organisations (including over 180 private companies) within the maritime, energy, infrastructure, and finance sectors. The Coalition is committed to getting commercially viable zero-emission vessels powered by zero-emission fuels into operation by 2030. Hitting this milestone is essential if we are to achieve maritime shipping’s moon-shot ambition of full decarbonisation by 2050.
About the Race to Zero
Race to Zero is a global campaign rallying non-state actors – including companies, cities, regions, financial, educational, and healthcare institutions – to take rigorous and immediate action to halve global emissions by 2030 and deliver a healthier, fairer zero-carbon world. Race to Zero is led by the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions for COP28 and COP29 – H.E. Razan Al Mubarak and H.E Nigar Arpadari – to drive real world momentum and action.
About the UCL Energy Institute
The UCL Energy Institute hosts a world leading research group which aims to accelerate the transition to an equitable and sustainable energy and trade system within the context of the ocean. The Shipping and Oceans Research Group’s multi-disciplinary work on the shipping and ocean system leverages advanced data analytics, cutting-edge modelling, and rigorous research methods, providing crucial insights for decision-makers in both policy and industry. The group focuses on three core areas: analysing big data to understand drivers of historical emissions and wider environmental impacts, developing models and frameworks to explore energy and trade transition to a zero emissions future, and conducting social science research to examine the policy and commercial structures that enable the decarbonisation of the shipping sector.
IMO member states have adopted a landmark resolution that sends the clearest signal yet that the shipping industry is committed to achieving net zero by 2050.
