How ‘Avoid & Shift’ can boost transport’s race to zero emissions

Land Transport decarbonization is progressing rapidly through the electrification of vehicles and railways; with the ZEV Breakthroughs operationalized in the Global ZEV Transition Roadmap.

While this approach is necessary, electrification alone won’t meet the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. A balanced strategy that includes “Avoid” and “Shift” measures is needed to truly decarbonize transport.

These measures, which aim to reduce the need for travel and shift towards more sustainable transport modes, have often been overlooked but are essential for achieving broader, long-term climate targets. The International Energy Agency highlights that aligning transport with the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario requires implementing a broad set of policies to encourage shifts to the least carbon-intensive travel options, as part of the solution.

At the heart of Avoid and Shift Breakthrough is the ambitious goal of “Doubling the share of energy-efficient and fossil-free forms of land transport for people and goods by 2030”. This builds up on the Call To Action launched by SLOCAT and other sustainable transport stakeholders at COP28. It further highlights the enhanced potential when combined with renewables and zero-emissions energy, and brings an agenda of actions needed for capacity, finance and ambition.

Cities leadership in fighting transport emissions

Many cities are witnessing a surge in private vehicle ownership, which contributes to increased traffic congestion and air pollution. Moreover, urban areas are experiencing a rapid rise in population density, where the transport demand and emissions is likely to equally increase. Investing in the avoid and shift approach can help decouple economic growth and needed prosperity, from such emissions. It is not a simple task but cities around the world are finding and delivering solutions.

Dakar’s launched a fully electric BRT, a first for this type of system in the Africa region, with 18.3 km network and fleet of 144 buses fully powered by renewable and solar energy. Expected to serve 300,000 passengers daily, in half the average commute time, incentivizing mode shift from private vehicles and driving possible.

The city of Kigali takes 10km of streets every other Sunday from cars  and gives them to pedestrians based on the award winning ciclovia model pioneered by citizens in Bogota first started fifty years ago and now enjoyed by 1.3 million people.

The transition to sustainable transport and energy systems requires a multifaceted approach whereby different actors jointly move in support of the transition, activating the positive ambition loop between state and non-state actors. Such breadth of stakeholders is seen in the list of supporters of the Call to Action and the Avoid and Shift Breakthrough, across the five levers of the breakthrough – demand, supply, finance, civil society and policy. And two countries lead, demonstrating their commitment to this vision: Chile and Colombia.

Why now? NDC 3.0 and enhanced ambition for Avoid and Shift

The upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0 (NDCs 3.0) represent a critical juncture in global climate action. Due by February 2025, these NDCs will form the basis of countries’ climate commitments moving forward and are expected to demonstrate increased ambition based on the outcomes of the First Global Stocktake, which calls for “Accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through the development of infrastructure and the rapid deployment  of zero and low-emission vehicles”.

To support countries in leveraging design and implementation of their NDCs, the Climate Champions Team collected insights, priorities and offers of support from non-state actors in the “Whole-of-Society rallies to support strong National Climate Plans”.

This breakthrough offers a timely framework for countries to also enhance their climate commitments. While keeping a high-level of ambition, this target also acknowledges that countries and regions have diverse starting points, economic circumstances, and transport needs, which means a one-size-fits-all approach won’t work. Each country can design its own pathway based on a combination of strategies that fit its unique context. By including, and enhancing Avoid and Shift transport targets in NDCs, countries showcase clear policy signals that can move the market to support delivery of 2030 Breakthrough, enabling non-state actors to deliver on the target.

The sustainable transport community is actively working to support Parties in enhancing their transport ambitions through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Initiatives like the SLOCAT NDC Library and the ITF Guide on Transport NDCs provide valuable resources for governments aiming to integrate sustainable mobility into their climate strategies. These tools help policymakers identify best practices and innovative approaches to enhance their commitments towards low-carbon transport solutions

As we look beyond COP29, it is clear that transforming transport systems is an urgent necessity. By encouraging collaboration between countries and sub national governments, urban environments can become cleaner, healthier and more resilient places to live in.