THE 2030 BREAKTHROUGH

Solar and wind power must comprise at least 40%, and all renewables at least 60%, of global electricity generation by 2030.

Why renewable power? TRACKING PROGRESS

Acknowledging the organisations working towards this future

ACHIEVING THE 2030 BREAKTHROUGH

TECHNOLOGY / SUPPLY

How the clean power sector can help

  1. Dramatically increase the current global rate of renewable development - by over 5x 2020 additions for wind, and by over 3x 2020 additions for solar. In order to be on track for a net zero future, between now and 2030, annual deployment of wind should be 5.2x more than the wind power added in 2020 and 3.2x more than the solar power added in 2020. This will require exponential scaling of deployment over the next decade.
    2. BNEF
    https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/A pr/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2022
  2. Reduce the carbon intensity of electricity through the retiring of fossil fuel plants
    3. To rapidly reduce the carbon intensity of the electricity sector, the over 2 terawatts of coal capacity must be phased out by 2030. (E3G) Other fossil fuel sources for power generation, such as heavy fuel oil and gas, must also be dramatically reduced.
    Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown (Coal) Global Energy Tracker (Gas)
  3. Streamline permitting and development for transmission and distribution infrastructure to interconnect renewables promptly and ensure better balancing
    4. Faster permitting and development will attract investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure, which is crucial to managing the transition away from fossil fuel plants to variable renewables and connecting those without energy access. (EY, 2021)
    IEA, World Energy Investment 2020
  4. Diversify mineral refining, while identifying better recycling options to ensure an adequate supply of renewables
    5. Minerals and rare earths are crucial to the production of EVs, wind turbines, solar PV panels, and energy storage. To achieve clean targets, the production of these minerals and rare earths will need to accelerate in parallel. (IEA, 2021)
    IEA

Signals of Change

IEA, “Renewable Power is set to break another global record in 2022...” (2022)

IEA, “Renewable Power is set to break another global record in 2022...” (2022)

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GWEC, “Offshore wind industry enjoys best every year...” (2022)

GWEC, “Offshore wind industry enjoys best every year...” (2022)

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S&P Global, “More than 23GW of coal capacity to retire in 2028 as plant closures accelerate...” (2022)

S&P Global, “More than 23GW of coal capacity to retire in 2028 as plant closures accelerate...” (2022)

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RMI, “Headwinds for US Natural Gas Power,” (2021)

RMI, “Headwinds for US Natural Gas Power,” (2021)

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SEI, “Over €3 billion invested in Europe’s smart grid R&D” (2021)

SEI, “Over €3 billion invested in Europe’s smart grid R&D” (2021)

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PV-Tech, “Faster permitting could bring nearly 1TW of solar and wind to construction in 3 years” (Sept. 2022)

PV-Tech, “Faster permitting could bring nearly 1TW of solar and wind to construction in 3 years” (Sept. 2022)

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Politico, “Putin’s war accelerates the EU’s fossil fuel detox: The Russian president has inadvertently sped up Europe’s Green New Deal” (Oct. 2022)

Politico, “Putin’s war accelerates the EU’s fossil fuel detox: The Russian president has inadvertently sped up Europe’s Green New Deal” (Oct. 2022)

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World Bank, Climate-Smart Mining: Materials for Climate Action (2020)

World Bank, Climate-Smart Mining: Materials for Climate Action (2020)

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DEMAND

How the market can influence change.

  1. Prepare and plan for a threefold increase in electricity consumption as buildings and transportation sectors electrify
    2. The electrification of building and transportation sectors, combined with continued economic development and the emergence of green hydrogen will increase demand for electricity. Proper preparation and planning for this level of demand will be essential. (McKinsey, 2022)
    IEA, “Tracking Clean Energy Progress”
  2. Strengthen grid resilience
    3. Resilience for the grid needs to be strengthened. As we go all electric, and buildings and transportation depend increasingly on grid reliability, the cost of disruption increases.
    IEA, “Smart grids” SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI indices
  3. Double the global efficiency of the most energy-intensive appliances by 2030 through minimum energy performance standards
    4. Industrial motor systems, air conditioners, refrigerators, and lighting account for over 40% of all global electricity demand. Doubling the efficiency of these products and requiring their adoption through Minimum Energy Performance Standards across the globe by 2030 could reduce electricity demand by 20%. (SEAD)
    SEAD

Signals of Change

Reuters, “Global wind and solar growth on track to meet climate targets,” (March 2022)

Reuters, “Global wind and solar growth on track to meet climate targets,” (March 2022)

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Power Up campaign

Power Up campaign

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McKinsey, “How to increase grid resilience through targeted investment: SIDE BAR: Best in class example: Italian TSO,” (2021)

McKinsey, “How to increase grid resilience through targeted investment: SIDE BAR: Best in class example: Italian TSO,” (2021)

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“Biden-Harris Administration Launches $10.5 Billion Investment to Strengthen America’s Electricity Grid,” (Aug 2022)

“Biden-Harris Administration Launches $10.5 Billion Investment to Strengthen America’s Electricity Grid,” (Aug 2022)

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European Commission, “In focus: Energy efficiency - a driver for lower energy bills,” (Oct., 2022)

European Commission, “In focus: Energy efficiency - a driver for lower energy bills,” (Oct., 2022)

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Canary Media, “Climate law could spur ‘market transformation’ in building electrification,” (2022)

Canary Media, “Climate law could spur ‘market transformation’ in building electrification,” (2022)

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FINANCE

The support required from government and industry.

  1. Triple annual investment in renewables to over $4T USD by 2030
    2. To be on track for a net zero future, annual investment in energy infrastructure must be at least doubled from $1.7T over the next 8 years. In 2022, roughly half of that investment went to renewables, while a net zero pathway requires that at least 80% of energy investment go to renewables. Beyond 2030, the amount of energy investment and the focus on renewables need to increase even more (BNEF, 2022).
    IEA, Annual World Energy Investment report
  2. Crowd-in private sector financing in the power sector, especially in developing markets
    3. Over $130T in investment into the power sector is needed between now and 2050. The vast majority will necessarily come from the private sector, but the public sector has a catalytic role in de-risking new, innovative technologies, and de-risking investment in higher-risk technologies and markets. (WRI, 2021)
    IEA, Annual World Energy Investment report
  3. Increase annual investment in universal energy access by $35B USD to reach the 750M people without access to electricity.
    4. To achieve universal energy access by 2030, an increase of $35B USD is needed, a modest share of global energy investment (UNDESA, 2021)
    IEA, “World Energy Investment” IRENA, “Tracking SDG7”

Signals of Change

IEA, “Record clean energy spending is set to help global energy investment grow by 8% in 2022” (June 2022)

IEA, “Record clean energy spending is set to help global energy investment grow by 8% in 2022” (June 2022)

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WEF, “These charts show record renewable energy investment in 2022”

WEF, “These charts show record renewable energy investment in 2022”

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Utility Dive, “Global renewable investment sets new record at $226B in H1 despite supply chain constraints: BNEF” (Aug., 2022)

Utility Dive, “Global renewable investment sets new record at $226B in H1 despite supply chain constraints: BNEF” (Aug., 2022)

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Bloomberg, “US Clean Energy Draws Record $105 Billion in Private Investment” (2022)

Bloomberg, “US Clean Energy Draws Record $105 Billion in Private Investment” (2022)

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ESI Africa, “Off grid solar market investment growing, but off pace...” (2022)

ESI Africa, “Off grid solar market investment growing, but off pace...” (2022)

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Businessday (Nigeria), “M-KOPA unlocks $600 million in credit for underbanked”

Businessday (Nigeria), “M-KOPA unlocks $600 million in credit for underbanked”

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Power Up Campaign

Power Up Campaign

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POLICY

Visible, tangible support from governments and organisations.

  1. Cease new oil and gas exploration immediately.
    2. Phasing out fossil fuel exploration and production is essential to addressing climate change. Policymakers are uniquely positioned to prioritise this key action
    Carbon Tracker
  2. Better coordinate international assistance from the global north to global south to support renewable investment in the power sector.
    3. Countries in the global south need resources to deliver on a rapid acceleration towards a net zero power system. These resources include not just financial support, but also capacity-building, cooperation, and access to expertise.
    Aid Atlas OECD, Development Assistance Commitee

Signals of Change

Fossil Fuel Treaty Campaign

Fossil Fuel Treaty Campaign

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RMI, “Headwinds for US Natural Gas Power” (2021)

RMI, “Headwinds for US Natural Gas Power” (2021)

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IEA, “Indonesia’s push to reach net zero emissions can help power a new phase in its economic development,” (2022)

IEA, “Indonesia’s push to reach net zero emissions can help power a new phase in its economic development,” (2022)

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International Solar Alliance, “ISA closes its historic meeting with a promise to increase solarisation in Latin American & Caribbean region” (2022)

International Solar Alliance, “ISA closes its historic meeting with a promise to increase solarisation in Latin American & Caribbean region” (2022)

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CIVIL SOCIETY

How individuals and organisations can mobilise change.

  1. NGOs and private sector support to just and equitable energy transition planning
    2. Just and equitable energy transitions in economies reliant on fossil fuels will require the support of civil society and the private sector. This support will help to develop and implement plans for managing the transition away from high-carbon power systems while working closely with local communities and workers.
    Qualitative progress on Just Transition Partnerships (JET-Ps) is available country by country
  2. Address affordability and equity challenges for consumers, ensuring that everyone benefits from the advantages of clean power
    3. In the roll-out of clean energy, structural inequities and upfront costs can be barriers to everyone benefiting from affordable, resilient power. On both global and local levels, equity and affordability need to be front-and-center in energy decision-making, policy-design, and business. (SEI, “Considerations for a just and equitable energy transition,” 2022)

Signals of Change

UN Global Compact, “UN Global Compact launches new guidance on a just transition for business” (Sept. 2022)

UN Global Compact, “UN Global Compact launches new guidance on a just transition for business” (Sept. 2022)

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SEforALL, “Nigeria’s Vice President launches Energy Transition Plan...” (Aug 2022)

SEforALL, “Nigeria’s Vice President launches Energy Transition Plan...” (Aug 2022)

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Stanford Social Innovation Review, “Powering needs, empowering lives” (2022)

Stanford Social Innovation Review, “Powering needs, empowering lives” (2022)

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RMI, “How the Caribbean can be a model for a just and equitable energy transition,” (2021)

RMI, “How the Caribbean can be a model for a just and equitable energy transition,” (2021)

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TAKE ACTION

Join these initiatives

Cross-cutting

 

Global Power System Consortium

 

Cities

 

C40

ICLEI

 

Regions

 

Powering Past Coal Alliance

Under 2 Coalition Net-Zero Leaders Group

Supply

 

Powering Past Coal Alliance

EP100 (Climate Group)

Efficiency for Access Coalition

Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet

Breakthrough Energy Catalyst

Fossil Fuel Treaty

 

Demand

 

RE100

 

Finance

Climate Action 100+

Net Zero Asset Owners Alliance

Powering Past Coal Alliance

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